Good Morning All,
we'll see the daily currency topic.




EURUSD The Euro was confined to narrow ranges around the 1.0900 level for most of Monday with solid buying support on dips, but no momentum for any push higher after Friday’s retreat late in the European session. Although risk appetite was slightly firmer which curbed potential Euro buying, there was still an important underlying mood of caution, especially as oil prices retreated from early highs and moved back towards 12-year lows. There was some speculation over a dovish tone from the ECB on Thursday which hampered the Euro, although markets were not expecting any dramatic signals from President Draghi at this stage, especially given important divisions within the central bank and strong German opposition to any further monetary easing. There will be expectations of lower inflation forecasts which would tend to curb Euro support. There were further concerns surrounding the Italian banking sector which tended to have some negative impact on the Euro, although it was resilient at lower levels. US markets were closed which severely curtained market activity and Federal Reserve officials are also entering a silent period ahead of next week’s FOMC policy decision. There were no expectations that interest rates would be increased at the January meeting. As narrow ranges prevailed, the Euro drifted slightly weaker towards 1.0870 in Asian trading on Tuesday as risk appetite was slightly stronger which discouraged a further covering of Euro shorts.




JPY The dollar was able to find support below 117.00 against the yen on Monday and rallied as risk appetite improved, although there was a lack of overall conviction given a lack of confidence that equity-market rallies would be sustained. A reversal in oil prices curbed risk appetite to some extent, although the overall yen impact was limited with no lead from Wall Street and the US currency was able to show some resilience at lower levels. Chinese GDP data was marginally weaker than expected at 6.8% for the fourth quarter from 6.9% previously and the weakest since early 2009 with industrial production and retail sales data also slightly weaker than expected. After initial yen gains and a retreat in equity markets, there was a recovery in risk appetite, especially with some expectations that China would launch another round of stimulus measures to support demand. In this environment, the dollar pushed to highs in the 117.80 area against the yen in early Europe with the Euro just above 128.00.




GBP Sterling was able to find some respite from selling during Monday with support beyond 0.7650 against the Euro and close to 1.4250, although rallies still attracted selling interest relatively quickly. Given the recent correlation between risk appetite and Sterling performance, the UK currency drew some initial support from a small net improvement in investor confidence. Domestic economic data releases will have an important this week with the latest consumer inflation data due on Tuesday labour-market data on Wednesday. Retail sales and government borrowing data are due on Friday and the data overall will provide an important snapshot of the overall economic performance and will have a significant impact on Sterling sentiment. Bank of England MPC member Vlieghe stated that, on balance, the next move in interest rates was likely to be up, although the comments overall were relatively dovish as a cut could not be ruled out if there were further data disappointments. Underlying sentiment remained weak with a further test of support below 1.4250 against the dollar before a limited recovery.




CHF The Euro was confined to relatively narrow ranges against the franc on Monday and found some support below 1.0850 without making any headway. The dollar was able to consolidate a position above 1.0000 as trading ranges narrowed on a lack of liquidity The Swiss currency still found it difficult to gain any traction when risk appetite dipped lower with no significant support on defensive grounds while there was a slightly weaker franc tone on Tuesday as risk conditions registered a small improvement while there were expectations that the National Bank would push for a weaker franc.


Regards All.
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