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The dollar’s failure to continue the rally as yesterdays deal unfolded was the sign of things to come. The Dagong downgrade just added to what was already happening. The threat of downgrades have been well publicised all the way through the debt crisis and despite the deal they may still happen. The ratings agencies weren’t just hanging on the deal but the way the US dealt with it. It wouldn’t surprise me to see another downgrade hit the wires. Fitch has already put the US on a warning and the others are probably busy working out what they’ll do. Until they either come out and affirm the current ratings or downgrade, the markets are going to be jumpy.
It’s going to take a couple of days for the market to find it’s feet again. Any solution would be worth maybe 150-200 pips at the max.
We got 75 odd pips in USD/JPY from the US session open to the top, and nearly 150 in cable and 95 in EUR/USD.
Also, beware trying to catch the top as at the time the prices were telling me that there may be further to go and that once the deal had been stamped we may get another run.
However there wasn’t much left to go to the top despite the run to 99.00 overnight.There’s been a few people unhappy at certain calls or what we’ve put out. It’s never a question of being 100% right (though we wish and strive for that to be the case) What we write is sometimes history as soon as it’s published. We had a saying on the LIFFE floor which was that a quote is only good while the breath is warm, meaning only as good until it had finished being uttered. The same applies here. If the market decides so, it can make what we write invalid as soon as it hits the front page.
The market waits for no man and the key is that individually, you take all the information given and decide your own fate. Whatever anyone says, writes or what the charts say, the number one thing to pay attention to is the price action. The price is king and if you can learn to read what it’s telling you then you need nothing else in the world to make money. Sometimes the message is as clear as day and sometimes as clear as mud and often the market won’t really be saying much at all. When you get big risk events like this the market will have a lot to say and it will say it loudly. Whether you profit or lose money will depend on whether you’re listening.