Open trading account 
It seems traders were just waiting for the slightet bad news to rip into Aud and the employment data wasn't good. Nzd got pulled with it but has already taken back some of the losses.
Nzd is very strong (so says Graem Wheeler as well not too long ago who is the head of RBNZ and incidentally has said he doesn't see room for intervention as of yet. Hint! Hint! Hint! So he must not be as worried as Stevens who has been quite a bit more communicative and verbal about the Aud's current rate. This lack of intervention more or less by the the RBNZ could mean some things: they know that from incoming data it's destined to fall very soon or they don't care so much about the current rate. I like to lean towards the idea that they are just waiting for the most opportune time to bring it down and be effective (last time they tried to talk the Nzd down and even use ammunition, they did it at a crucial time and it went back to the .7800 area real fast). So any trades on the short side might have to wait it out and should be attentive to the size of the trade. However, if shorts do eventually prevail there are some real good profits to be made in a quick fall.
The yen is tricky. We are approaching a very important trend-line with UsdJpy that should probably come into play this week (tomorrow more than likely). It is sitting at around the 98.90 level but this is just off the top of my head. The key to trading this is to see what it does if and when it reaches this trend-line. Let's also consider that UsdJpy has been slowly moving in a downtrend since it topped about 5-6 months ago. This is a very long time ago. Looking back at previous price action this is the average time UsdJpy has taken to consolidate and move again. I am expecting some kind of move this month and I expect up. If not, traders will lose hope and shorts will prevail and stops will get knocked out and orders will get filled as bids will get piked up on the way down to the 95 area. If it goes down at this point it will be very brief but big. that is my assumption.
Another problem or complex with the yen are Aud, Nzd and Chf. These crosses are way high right now, really pressing the extremes in terms of technicals on large frame charts. This is not to say that they can't keep going but what I would find very difficult and what I have been saying for some time now is that if NzdJpy or any of these crosses go up anymore, they absolutely can't be gaining on the Usd as well. Why? Because this would make their moves on either currency (Jpy or Usd) just too big for the current levels. So we will probably see a pullback in one or the other for example NzdUsd coming down as UsdJpy finally goes up. In this way NzdJpy could either sit still or just gradually increase.
The Euro and EurUsd seems to be okay where it is. It's been said that at and around 1.32-1.35 area is the ideal rate for this pair and I think it is no coincidence that every time we get any higher, it comes ripping back down. It might hover up at levels near 1.3700 for a while but this is usual Fx squeezes going on. I don't see it dropping below the 1.3200 mark for a while now. The data coming from the Eurozone as of recently has not been all that bad. Manufacturing, sales, consumer confidence have been in line with what the ECB had said about the last quarters of 2013. What is horrible is the unemployment rates. These are too high and we have not bottomed as they keep saying because the number keeps increasing. This is not called bottoming, this is called increasing. However, there isn't much the ECB can do with regards to unemployment. This is where I think Draghi will harp on 'Individual Accountability' and 'Individual Structural Reforms'. The back stops are in place and credit is in place and so on and so forth so at this point Draghi can't employ individuals in their given country by himself. It's up to the country to figure it out.
The Aud has had a lot of verbal intervention as of recently by Glenn Stevens. This seems to have had an effect. Now, the Aud has reached those 'unusually high' levels again last night and if Stevens is to be believed, I can't see the Aud going up very much more without moving once again back to the .9000-.9200 area. The question to ask is this. Why would the head of the RBA (which is huge globally) be telling investors to be weary and that those levels were 'unusually high' and that a lower rate would help the overall growth prospect of not only Australia but globally, if it wasn't true? So basically, if Aud treads past those levels, Stevens (in my book) would be pulling everyone's leg and being dishonest and untruthful and in the end seem incapable and incompetent. And I don't think this is the case. He is definitely very capable and very competent. That is the way I see it. So I am absolutely not expecting Aud in the medium term (last quarter of 2013) to go past those 'unusual high' levels of .9540. We will see.
Gbp has had very good economical data recently and this factor has kept it coming back up against all majors time and time again. The one factor hurting this currency is recent comments about the rate hurting exports and growth. This could keep it range bound for some time.
Lastly, let's think about the Fed, the Usd. Interestingly, the Fed (but also the ECB) has never said anything about the Usd and its rate. All the other major banks (to exclude the ECB) have put warning signs out there about how they would like a weaker currency. All of them this year at some point. The Fed has not. They have never said anything about their exchange rate, exports, growth etc. The Fed's big push is on unemployment and inflation as well. Inflation and price have a correlation but the Fed's inflation is on track and they again, I repeat, have said nothing about rates so far. This is vital. Even Wheeler has said something and in their annual economic report it is quite clear that a high Nzd is damaging and more costly for New Zealand than a lower one. The Fed has not said anything of the like. And neither has the ECB directly, just some of the countries inside the Eurozone have complained.
This month is big. The big month just might be when the Fed does taper but a trader must consider that by the time the Fed says we are tapering, wouldn't one expect this to have been already calculated in? So when is this time of factoring in these moves? I say right now.
Nzd is very strong (so says Graem Wheeler as well not too long ago who is the head of RBNZ and incidentally has said he doesn't see room for intervention as of yet. Hint! Hint! Hint! So he must not be as worried as Stevens who has been quite a bit more communicative and verbal about the Aud's current rate. This lack of intervention more or less by the the RBNZ could mean some things: they know that from incoming data it's destined to fall very soon or they don't care so much about the current rate. I like to lean towards the idea that they are just waiting for the most opportune time to bring it down and be effective (last time they tried to talk the Nzd down and even use ammunition, they did it at a crucial time and it went back to the .7800 area real fast). So any trades on the short side might have to wait it out and should be attentive to the size of the trade. However, if shorts do eventually prevail there are some real good profits to be made in a quick fall.
The yen is tricky. We are approaching a very important trend-line with UsdJpy that should probably come into play this week (tomorrow more than likely). It is sitting at around the 98.90 level but this is just off the top of my head. The key to trading this is to see what it does if and when it reaches this trend-line. Let's also consider that UsdJpy has been slowly moving in a downtrend since it topped about 5-6 months ago. This is a very long time ago. Looking back at previous price action this is the average time UsdJpy has taken to consolidate and move again. I am expecting some kind of move this month and I expect up. If not, traders will lose hope and shorts will prevail and stops will get knocked out and orders will get filled as bids will get piked up on the way down to the 95 area. If it goes down at this point it will be very brief but big. that is my assumption.
Another problem or complex with the yen are Aud, Nzd and Chf. These crosses are way high right now, really pressing the extremes in terms of technicals on large frame charts. This is not to say that they can't keep going but what I would find very difficult and what I have been saying for some time now is that if NzdJpy or any of these crosses go up anymore, they absolutely can't be gaining on the Usd as well. Why? Because this would make their moves on either currency (Jpy or Usd) just too big for the current levels. So we will probably see a pullback in one or the other for example NzdUsd coming down as UsdJpy finally goes up. In this way NzdJpy could either sit still or just gradually increase.
The Euro and EurUsd seems to be okay where it is. It's been said that at and around 1.32-1.35 area is the ideal rate for this pair and I think it is no coincidence that every time we get any higher, it comes ripping back down. It might hover up at levels near 1.3700 for a while but this is usual Fx squeezes going on. I don't see it dropping below the 1.3200 mark for a while now. The data coming from the Eurozone as of recently has not been all that bad. Manufacturing, sales, consumer confidence have been in line with what the ECB had said about the last quarters of 2013. What is horrible is the unemployment rates. These are too high and we have not bottomed as they keep saying because the number keeps increasing. This is not called bottoming, this is called increasing. However, there isn't much the ECB can do with regards to unemployment. This is where I think Draghi will harp on 'Individual Accountability' and 'Individual Structural Reforms'. The back stops are in place and credit is in place and so on and so forth so at this point Draghi can't employ individuals in their given country by himself. It's up to the country to figure it out.
The Aud has had a lot of verbal intervention as of recently by Glenn Stevens. This seems to have had an effect. Now, the Aud has reached those 'unusually high' levels again last night and if Stevens is to be believed, I can't see the Aud going up very much more without moving once again back to the .9000-.9200 area. The question to ask is this. Why would the head of the RBA (which is huge globally) be telling investors to be weary and that those levels were 'unusually high' and that a lower rate would help the overall growth prospect of not only Australia but globally, if it wasn't true? So basically, if Aud treads past those levels, Stevens (in my book) would be pulling everyone's leg and being dishonest and untruthful and in the end seem incapable and incompetent. And I don't think this is the case. He is definitely very capable and very competent. That is the way I see it. So I am absolutely not expecting Aud in the medium term (last quarter of 2013) to go past those 'unusual high' levels of .9540. We will see.
Gbp has had very good economical data recently and this factor has kept it coming back up against all majors time and time again. The one factor hurting this currency is recent comments about the rate hurting exports and growth. This could keep it range bound for some time.
Lastly, let's think about the Fed, the Usd. Interestingly, the Fed (but also the ECB) has never said anything about the Usd and its rate. All the other major banks (to exclude the ECB) have put warning signs out there about how they would like a weaker currency. All of them this year at some point. The Fed has not. They have never said anything about their exchange rate, exports, growth etc. The Fed's big push is on unemployment and inflation as well. Inflation and price have a correlation but the Fed's inflation is on track and they again, I repeat, have said nothing about rates so far. This is vital. Even Wheeler has said something and in their annual economic report it is quite clear that a high Nzd is damaging and more costly for New Zealand than a lower one. The Fed has not said anything of the like. And neither has the ECB directly, just some of the countries inside the Eurozone have complained.
This month is big. The big month just might be when the Fed does taper but a trader must consider that by the time the Fed says we are tapering, wouldn't one expect this to have been already calculated in? So when is this time of factoring in these moves? I say right now.