EUR/USD

Last Friday’s disappointing news regarding the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers in the United States continued to affect the EUR/USD currency pair. Specifically, the EUR/US rose by 0.56% in US trading on Monday. As investors are unsure whether tapering will begin in the US, they chose to avoid the US dollar.

However, the European Central Bank (ECB) also recently lowered its economic growth forecast for 2014 and the President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, recently stated that he was cautious regarding growth and mentioned that an interest rate cut may occur in the future. Further, the release of Italy’s GDP numbers (and the current political trouble there) may have a negative effect on the Euro. Thus, the future of the overall EU economy seems a bit uncertain.

Thus, I am neutral to negative on the EUR/USD for this week.

GBP/USD

Although the British pound lost ground last week, the currency traded close to a six month high this week against the US dollar. Positive construction, manufacturing, and service numbers were to be credited for the renewed interest in the British pound. Additionally, recently released data stated that UK mortgage approvals were at a five year high, consumer confidence is soaring, and UK manufacturers are rapidly investing in new capital. A few major releases from the UK are expected this week (including employment numbers) and positive numbers can indicate continued growth for the British pound.

Thus, I am positive on the GBP/USD for this week.

EUR/JPY

The yen was down 1.13% on Monday against the Euro. A revised second quarter GDP number for Japan was released. This data revealed the Japanese economy met expectations and grew by 0.9% in the second quarter of 2013. However, this information increased the demand for greater yielding investments – at the expense of the yen currency. Moreover, since Tokyo won its Olympic bid to host this international event in 2020, the yen came under pressure as well.

This week, data regarding Japan’s tertiary industry activity will be released. Additionally, the Bank of Japan will release information regarding how it perceives Japan’s economy through the release of the bank’s monetary policy meeting minutes. Moreover, there will be releases from the Euro-zone as well this week – including the release of the Italy’s GDP data which could decrease the value of the Euro. Uncertainty regarding whether sales tax will increase in Japan is also a concern.

Thus, I am neutral on the EUR/JPY for this week.

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