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Good Friday Users;
we'll see now a short Economic Headlines of 8.19.16.
#EnjoyReading
• The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, reinforcing views of labour market strength that could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates soon. Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a strong labour market, for 76 straight weeks. That is the longest such stretch since 1973, when the labour market was much smaller. It is now viewed as either at or near full employment. It dropped 4K to a seasonally adjusted 262K. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators index rose 0.4%, the Board saying that there is some upside risk to the moderate growth that this month's reading implies.
• New York Fed Dudley, a permanent voter on U.S. interest-rate policy and a close ally of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, said the last two months of employment "helped allay concerns that arose earlier this year that job growth was beginning to stall (and) reinforced my view that labour market conditions continue to improve." Strong employment and a long-awaited return of middle-wage jobs suggest the labour market is tightening and the broader U.S. economy is on track, an influential Federal Reserve policymaker said on Thursday, appearing to reinforce his more confident message on a possible interest-rate hike.
• ECB rate setters agreed not to discuss any policy change at their July meeting and to keep market hopes for more stimulus in check, despite rising risks linked to Britain's vote to leave the European Union, minutes showed on Thursday. The accounts of the meeting suggested the ECB's Governing Council, which will meet again on Sept. 7-8 and examine new inflation forecasts, was in no rush to act, taking comfort from a calmer-than-expected market reaction to the Brexit vote even though risks had "clearly increased". ECB rate setters agreed they needed to reiterate their willingness to act if necessary but wanted to avoid stoking market expectations for further stimulus too far.
• A modest uptick in Eurozone inflation in July was confirmed by data on Friday which showed food prices surging over the year, although overall price indices still fell in 12 of the 19 member states. Euro zone prices rose 0.2% year-on-year, Eurostat said, confirming its initial estimate of two weeks ago. Month-on-month, prices fell 0.6% from June. Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile components of unprocessed food and energy, was unchanged at 0.8% in July. The narrower inflation indicator, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco products, rose an unchanged 0.9%. Both were the same as initial estimates.
• France's unemployment rate has fallen below 10% for the first time since 2012, offering a boost to President Francois Hollande, who has staked his political future on creating more jobs. The statistics body INSEE said unemployment on mainland France and its overseas territories fell to 9.9% in Q2, from 10.2 in the previous three months. Unemployment was down in all age categories, but the fall in youth unemployment was sharper: it fell 0.4 points to 24.3%, the lowest since 2014. The percentage of long-term unemployed -- those registered as out of work for over a year -- remained stable at 4.3%, however.
• New residential building permits issued in Germany increased by nearly a third in the first half of 2016 to more than 182,000, a sign that construction may help to reinvigorate growth in Europe's largest economy. It was the highest first-half total since 2000. Construction investment soared in the first quarter, making the sector one of the biggest contributors to an overall growth rate of 0.7% in the first three months of the year.
• UK Retail Sales showed no weakness as it surged for the month of July, adding to signs there has been little immediate hit for consumers. It jumped 1.4% versus the fall by -0.9% prior. Compared to a year ago it was up 5.9%. These are the first official figures to shed light on how consumer demand has performed since the unexpected decision by voters to leave the European Union in the June 23 referendum.
• Japan's exports tumbled in July at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis with a resurgent yen adding to the challenge of weak external markets - leaving the economy and the government more reliant on shaky domestic demand to drive growth. Japan's exports have now fallen for 10 consecutive months, the longest losing streak since losses on U.S. subprime mortgages sparked a global financial crisis that crippled the U.S. financial system. In July exports fell an annual 14.0% and was the fastest decline since October 2009.
• Home price rises in China's biggest cities showed signs of easing in July, adding to concerns that one of the economy's key growth drivers is losing steam but offering some relief for policymakers worried about property bubbles. Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities rose 7.9% in July from a year earlier, an official survey showed on Thursday, compared with a 7.3% increase in June. But on a monthly basis, prices rose just 0.8% in July, the same pace as in June, which was the slowest since April.
• Chile's gross domestic product shrunk by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2016 from the first quarter, as mining in the world's biggest copper exporter contracted, the central bank said on Thursday. The fall was the first contraction from one quarter to the next since early 2010, when Chile was hit by a devastating earthquake. The setback followed higher-than-expected 1.3% growth in the first quarter.
• Australian employment sped past forecasts in July while the jobless rate unexpectedly dipped to 5.7% from 5.8%, yet the good news was tarnished by a steep fall in full-time work that pointed to lingering slack in the labour market. Thursday's data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed +26,200 net new jobs were created in July. However, full-time positions actually sank 45,400, reversing all the gains made the month before and continuing a trend to part-time work that has been a feature of the year so far.
Fx Maket Look
• The U.S. dollar hovered near its lowest against the euro and Swiss franc in nearly eight weeks on Thursday, a day after minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting showed a bias among policymakers against raising interest rates soon. The dollar last hovered slightly above the multi-week lows. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.60% at 94.164. The index earlier touched a near eight-week low of 94.324.
• Average daily trading in the global currency market shrank by just under 10% last month, falling back to $4.7 trillion after hitting the highest level in more than a year on the back Britain's vote in June to leave the European Union. Data from settlement system CLS showed volumes down from $5.2 trillion a day on average in June, but up from $4.52 trillion a year ago. With many traders on holiday, the volatility of the pound has fallen back to levels seen at the start of 2016 and those on the euro are back at their lowest in two years.
• The euro hit a near eight-week high against the dollar of $1.1338 in early trading, and the dollar touched a nearly eight-week low against the Swiss franc of 0.9570 franc. The dollar also slipped to 99.66 yen earlier, or a hair above Tuesday's more than seven-week low of 99.53 yen.
• Sterling jumped a full cent to a two-week high against the dollar after UK retail sales for July beat forecasts, apparently unaffected by Britain's vote to leave the European Union. That drove the pound 0.9% higher on the day against the dollar, trading at $1.3140. It also gained 0.5% to 86.20 pence per euro. Any gains for sterling in recent weeks have been short-lived, with traders tending to sell the pound on any blips back above $1.30. But some doubt may be creeping in. But it is still early days. While it is justified to breathe a sigh of relief, we may only see the effect on investment and job creation and so on come through over the next two to five years.
• The commodity-linked Canadian dollar strengthened to a near eight-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as oil surged and minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting weighed on the greenback. The main story of the whole month has been the price of oil ... that has been the driving force behind the appreciation in the Loonie. The Canadian dollar was trading at C$1.2771 to the greenback, or 78.30 U.S. cents, stronger than Wednesday's close of C$1.2856, or 77.78 U.S. cents against the U.S. dollar for the month of August. The currency's weakest level was C$1.2857, while it touched its strongest level since June 24 at C$1.2765. Foreign investors bought a net C$9.02 billion ($7.03 billion) in Canadian securities in June, mainly in stocks, after buying C$13.99 billion in securities in May.
• The Australian dollar received a fillip on Thursday after better-than-expected domestic jobs figures supported expectations that interest rates are likely to stay on hold for a couple of months at least. The Australian dollar rallied around half a U.S. cent to $0.7709, pulling closer to a three-month peak of $0.7760 touched last week. Closed NY at 0.7686 c+0.4% after Aust jobs induced spike to 0.7720 faded. Familiar themes past 24hrs; generalised USD weakness, higher commodities. DXY to post Brexit low, CRB pressing fresh 4-week high, VIX stays anchored. Fed speakers on the wires but dovish July Mins still resonates.
• South Africa's rand edged firmer on Thursday along with fellow emerging currencies as risk assets regained favour after minutes from the United States central bank dampened bets of an interest rate hike this year. The rand was 0.2% firmer at 13.3455 per dollar, compared with the close at 13.3700 overnight in New York. A lack of local economic data releases saw the unit trade in a narrow band for most of the session as it struggled to gain momentum through technical resistance near 13.3000.
• The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rose following Wednesday’s slump. Brazil’s real posted the biggest decline among major currencies as a delay in voting on a budget bill raised concern that it may take longer than expected to rein in the fiscal deficit.
Friendly Weekend.
we'll see now a short Economic Headlines of 8.19.16.
#EnjoyReading
• The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, reinforcing views of labour market strength that could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates soon. Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a strong labour market, for 76 straight weeks. That is the longest such stretch since 1973, when the labour market was much smaller. It is now viewed as either at or near full employment. It dropped 4K to a seasonally adjusted 262K. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators index rose 0.4%, the Board saying that there is some upside risk to the moderate growth that this month's reading implies.
• New York Fed Dudley, a permanent voter on U.S. interest-rate policy and a close ally of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, said the last two months of employment "helped allay concerns that arose earlier this year that job growth was beginning to stall (and) reinforced my view that labour market conditions continue to improve." Strong employment and a long-awaited return of middle-wage jobs suggest the labour market is tightening and the broader U.S. economy is on track, an influential Federal Reserve policymaker said on Thursday, appearing to reinforce his more confident message on a possible interest-rate hike.
• ECB rate setters agreed not to discuss any policy change at their July meeting and to keep market hopes for more stimulus in check, despite rising risks linked to Britain's vote to leave the European Union, minutes showed on Thursday. The accounts of the meeting suggested the ECB's Governing Council, which will meet again on Sept. 7-8 and examine new inflation forecasts, was in no rush to act, taking comfort from a calmer-than-expected market reaction to the Brexit vote even though risks had "clearly increased". ECB rate setters agreed they needed to reiterate their willingness to act if necessary but wanted to avoid stoking market expectations for further stimulus too far.
• A modest uptick in Eurozone inflation in July was confirmed by data on Friday which showed food prices surging over the year, although overall price indices still fell in 12 of the 19 member states. Euro zone prices rose 0.2% year-on-year, Eurostat said, confirming its initial estimate of two weeks ago. Month-on-month, prices fell 0.6% from June. Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile components of unprocessed food and energy, was unchanged at 0.8% in July. The narrower inflation indicator, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco products, rose an unchanged 0.9%. Both were the same as initial estimates.
• France's unemployment rate has fallen below 10% for the first time since 2012, offering a boost to President Francois Hollande, who has staked his political future on creating more jobs. The statistics body INSEE said unemployment on mainland France and its overseas territories fell to 9.9% in Q2, from 10.2 in the previous three months. Unemployment was down in all age categories, but the fall in youth unemployment was sharper: it fell 0.4 points to 24.3%, the lowest since 2014. The percentage of long-term unemployed -- those registered as out of work for over a year -- remained stable at 4.3%, however.
• New residential building permits issued in Germany increased by nearly a third in the first half of 2016 to more than 182,000, a sign that construction may help to reinvigorate growth in Europe's largest economy. It was the highest first-half total since 2000. Construction investment soared in the first quarter, making the sector one of the biggest contributors to an overall growth rate of 0.7% in the first three months of the year.
• UK Retail Sales showed no weakness as it surged for the month of July, adding to signs there has been little immediate hit for consumers. It jumped 1.4% versus the fall by -0.9% prior. Compared to a year ago it was up 5.9%. These are the first official figures to shed light on how consumer demand has performed since the unexpected decision by voters to leave the European Union in the June 23 referendum.
• Japan's exports tumbled in July at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis with a resurgent yen adding to the challenge of weak external markets - leaving the economy and the government more reliant on shaky domestic demand to drive growth. Japan's exports have now fallen for 10 consecutive months, the longest losing streak since losses on U.S. subprime mortgages sparked a global financial crisis that crippled the U.S. financial system. In July exports fell an annual 14.0% and was the fastest decline since October 2009.
• Home price rises in China's biggest cities showed signs of easing in July, adding to concerns that one of the economy's key growth drivers is losing steam but offering some relief for policymakers worried about property bubbles. Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities rose 7.9% in July from a year earlier, an official survey showed on Thursday, compared with a 7.3% increase in June. But on a monthly basis, prices rose just 0.8% in July, the same pace as in June, which was the slowest since April.
• Chile's gross domestic product shrunk by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2016 from the first quarter, as mining in the world's biggest copper exporter contracted, the central bank said on Thursday. The fall was the first contraction from one quarter to the next since early 2010, when Chile was hit by a devastating earthquake. The setback followed higher-than-expected 1.3% growth in the first quarter.
• Australian employment sped past forecasts in July while the jobless rate unexpectedly dipped to 5.7% from 5.8%, yet the good news was tarnished by a steep fall in full-time work that pointed to lingering slack in the labour market. Thursday's data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed +26,200 net new jobs were created in July. However, full-time positions actually sank 45,400, reversing all the gains made the month before and continuing a trend to part-time work that has been a feature of the year so far.
Fx Maket Look• The U.S. dollar hovered near its lowest against the euro and Swiss franc in nearly eight weeks on Thursday, a day after minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting showed a bias among policymakers against raising interest rates soon. The dollar last hovered slightly above the multi-week lows. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.60% at 94.164. The index earlier touched a near eight-week low of 94.324.
• Average daily trading in the global currency market shrank by just under 10% last month, falling back to $4.7 trillion after hitting the highest level in more than a year on the back Britain's vote in June to leave the European Union. Data from settlement system CLS showed volumes down from $5.2 trillion a day on average in June, but up from $4.52 trillion a year ago. With many traders on holiday, the volatility of the pound has fallen back to levels seen at the start of 2016 and those on the euro are back at their lowest in two years.
• The euro hit a near eight-week high against the dollar of $1.1338 in early trading, and the dollar touched a nearly eight-week low against the Swiss franc of 0.9570 franc. The dollar also slipped to 99.66 yen earlier, or a hair above Tuesday's more than seven-week low of 99.53 yen.
• Sterling jumped a full cent to a two-week high against the dollar after UK retail sales for July beat forecasts, apparently unaffected by Britain's vote to leave the European Union. That drove the pound 0.9% higher on the day against the dollar, trading at $1.3140. It also gained 0.5% to 86.20 pence per euro. Any gains for sterling in recent weeks have been short-lived, with traders tending to sell the pound on any blips back above $1.30. But some doubt may be creeping in. But it is still early days. While it is justified to breathe a sigh of relief, we may only see the effect on investment and job creation and so on come through over the next two to five years.
• The commodity-linked Canadian dollar strengthened to a near eight-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as oil surged and minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting weighed on the greenback. The main story of the whole month has been the price of oil ... that has been the driving force behind the appreciation in the Loonie. The Canadian dollar was trading at C$1.2771 to the greenback, or 78.30 U.S. cents, stronger than Wednesday's close of C$1.2856, or 77.78 U.S. cents against the U.S. dollar for the month of August. The currency's weakest level was C$1.2857, while it touched its strongest level since June 24 at C$1.2765. Foreign investors bought a net C$9.02 billion ($7.03 billion) in Canadian securities in June, mainly in stocks, after buying C$13.99 billion in securities in May.
• The Australian dollar received a fillip on Thursday after better-than-expected domestic jobs figures supported expectations that interest rates are likely to stay on hold for a couple of months at least. The Australian dollar rallied around half a U.S. cent to $0.7709, pulling closer to a three-month peak of $0.7760 touched last week. Closed NY at 0.7686 c+0.4% after Aust jobs induced spike to 0.7720 faded. Familiar themes past 24hrs; generalised USD weakness, higher commodities. DXY to post Brexit low, CRB pressing fresh 4-week high, VIX stays anchored. Fed speakers on the wires but dovish July Mins still resonates.
• South Africa's rand edged firmer on Thursday along with fellow emerging currencies as risk assets regained favour after minutes from the United States central bank dampened bets of an interest rate hike this year. The rand was 0.2% firmer at 13.3455 per dollar, compared with the close at 13.3700 overnight in New York. A lack of local economic data releases saw the unit trade in a narrow band for most of the session as it struggled to gain momentum through technical resistance near 13.3000.
• The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rose following Wednesday’s slump. Brazil’s real posted the biggest decline among major currencies as a delay in voting on a budget bill raised concern that it may take longer than expected to rein in the fiscal deficit.
Friendly Weekend.