One of the most interesting things I did in this
research was to develop an "overbought" or
"oversold" indicator for EACH of 28 Currency Pairs.

Now this is not some crap about Moving Averages.

Rather, it exposes a fundamental way in which Market
Maker "decouples" individual Currency Pairs from their
"fair value" in order to make them "tradable" somewhat
independently from their "expected value".

All Currency Strength meters determine strength for
XXX by observing all of the Currency Pairs which contain
XXX as either the numerator or the denominator of the
pair. I call this set the "currency cluster". YYY strength
is also calculated considering all of the observations
where YYY Currency is either the numerator or the
denominator of the Currency Pair exchange rate ratio.

We directly observe the prices of all the Currency Pairs, but we
do not observe the Currencies themselves. They are known
only as individual observations as they occur in Currency
Pairs, compared to or quoted in some other Currency's value.
So the "Currency Strength" is a fundamental underlying
property we are seeking to measure or to estimate or
to "discover" using serious Currency Strength Analytics.

But Currency Pairs do not always move as would be predicted
by the XXX versus YYY relative strength values. This
calls into question the value of Currency Strength Analytics
as a predictor for a particular XXX/YYY Currency Pair.
However, I devised a way to "factor out" a specific Currency
Pair's strength, from its "predicted" or "fair value"
strength. In this way we can define an "overbought" or
"oversold" indicator using pure Currency Strength calculations.

By doing this, all of the same tricks and traps which
Market Makers everywhere use (in Futures, etc.)
can be used with individual Currency Pairs, to make
them somewhat (but not fully) independently
tradable, as opposed to being fully predictable from
the underlying Currencies.

Let me give an example: Let's say we want to know
whether the Currency Pair XXX/YYY is OverBought,
at Fair Value, or OverSold. We calculate the Currency
XXX both WITH, and WITHOUT using the XXX/YYY pair
observation. This yields a relative Strength XXX, and
let's call the other XXX'.
We also calculate the Currency YYY
both WITH and WITHOUT using the XXX/YYY
Currency Pair. This yields YYY and YYY'.

So there will be a "delta" between XXX/YYY and the
XXX'/YYY'. If XXX/YYY Currency Strength is higher
than XXX'/YYY' Currency Strength, then we have a
positive "delta" and we say that XXX/YYY is now
in an "overbought" or "too high" state, since it deviates
from the expected value for the Pair, causing an
increment in the relative movement of that Pair.
Then we can define "fair value" as XXX'/YYY' when
the XXX/YYY Currency Pair was NOT included in the
"cluster" calculations of either XXX or YYY Currency
strengths.

Now, this presents an interesting set of problems.
We would expect that Currency Strength relationships
would fully determine the relative price movement
of a given Currency Pair XXX/YYY. The Forex Market
should be fairly rigidly determined.

But what I did was to calculate the Currency Pair's
strength from its "cluster" of "family relationships".
A given Currency Pair is "distorted" by Market Makers either
too HIGH or too LOW relative to its "fair value".
Traders trade Currency Pairs, not Currencies.
Now, this "decoupling" is used in the short term to predict
that the Currency Pair will revert back to its "fair value".
However, the problem may be resolved either by
the Currency Pair itself moving back to the expected value,
OR..... The other Currency Pairs in its "cluster" being
gradually adjusted to resolve the distortion issue.
We often see a sudden Rally where a Pair XXX/YYY
jumps 20 PIPs and "freezes". It is "overbought" and
it should decline. However, instead of bringing it back
down again, over time, all of the other Currency Pairs
are gradually adjusted to resolve the discrepancy.
Market Makers or Liquidity Providers are in full control
here.

This means that the sudden Rally in XXX/YYY can "trap" those who
Sell the Top, expecting a pullback, but Market Makers never give
that pullback, even though XXX/YYY is distorted and
"should" pull back. If that makes sense ? This is what
we call "dirty tricks" which the extreme power of the
Market Makers makes possible...

But it is an extreme "distortion" of the "true value"
of the XXX/YYY Currency Pair which Market Maker forces
for its own trading purposes, and is a temporary
distortion which is resolved over time.
However most "overbought" situations resolve by
the Currency Pair coming back into line with its
"fair value".

By observing the short term OverBought and OverSold
Currency Pairs, we can do "countertrend" scalping by
assuming the Pair will return to its "fair value" in the
near future. However, like all trading, it doesn't always
work as expected.

As clear as muddy water? See attached images for
GBP/CAD and others.

A CURRENCY STRENGTH FACILITY IS USELESS UNLESS
IT CAN HELP US TO CHOOSE HIGH PROBABILITY
TRADE ENTRIES.

HyperScalper



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